The Saratoga meeting is winding down, with closing day on Monday, but there is still plenty of betting action over the holiday weekend including a trio of Grade 1 races on Saturday.

The Larry Jones trainee Havre de Grace, a four-year-old filly with Horse of the Year aspirations is taking on the boys in the $750,000 Woodward (G1).

The filly has made four starts this year, winning the Azeri (G3), Apple Blossom (G1), and Obeah (G3), then coming up a nose shy in the Delaware Handicap (G2), beaten by her archrival Blind Luck.

For her connections, a win against the boys would put her right in the mix for the Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year.

“Obviously, we think we have a chance to be Horse of the Year,” said owner Rick Porter of Fox Hill Farm. “And after we got beat a nose in the Del ‘Cap, we thought we had to do something aggressive, either run against Blind Luck again in the Personal Ensign [or] take the boys on. We had to do something to get everybody’s attention, hopefully.”

A victory and she likely would be pointed toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) . A loss and her trainer Larry Jones likely will put her back in against the girls and point her toward the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic (G1).

Her rival Blind Luck was being pointed to a start against the boys in the Pacific Classic (G1), but her connections decided to skip that race and she likely will run in the Lady’s Secret (G1) at Santa Anita Park on Oct. 1.

Havre de Grace has earned triple digit Beyer Speed Figures in six of her last seven starts, certainly putting her right in the mix in the Woodward.

The only runner in the field that earned a higher last out number is Mambo Meister, who earned a 110 Beyer winning the Primal Stakes at Calder on July 24.

His main competition is likely to come from Flat Out, who finished a solid second in the Whitney Handicap (G1) over the main track at Saratoga on Aug. 6.

The five-year-old won the Suburban (G2) on July 2 by 6 ½ lengths in a very impressive effort.

Trainer Todd Pletcher, who is well on his way to winning the trainer title again this year at the Spa sends out a pair of runners.

Mission Impazible, who missed winning the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) by a neck in June is looking to bounce back off a disappointing sixth place finish in the Whitney.

Pletcher will also send out Rule, who is coming off a victory in the Birdstone Stakes over the Spa main track on Aug. 4.

Completing the field are last year’s Florida Derby (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby (G1) runner up Ice Box, Whitney third place finisher Giant Oak, and recent optional claimer winner Convocation.

The Woodward will be telecast live on the VERSUS Network as part of the “Summer at Saratoga” series, with the one hour telecast getting underway at 5:00 ET.

The $250,000 Forego (G1) will also be televised live on VERSUS. The seven furlong sprint drew a field of nine.

The morning line favorite for the Forego is the Nick Zito trained Jackson Bend, who snapped a 12 race losing streak by winning the James Marvin on July 22.

His main competition is likely to come from Fourstardave (G2) winner Sidney’s Candy, and Cigar Mile (G1) winner Jersey Town.

Thanks to Hurricane Irene, there is a third Grade 1 race on Saturday’s card at the Spa.

Last Sunday’s $300,000 Personal Ensign (G1) was wiped out and was rescheduled for Saturday, with the original six that were entered last week coming back to compete.

The Martin Wolfson trained Ask the Moon, coming off a sharp win in the Ruffian (G1) on July 31 is the 2/1 morning line favorite.

Trying to turn the tables will be the Ruffian runner up and third place finishers Super Expresso and Tiz Miz Sue.

Go to our Handicapping Picks Page for Michael Dempsey’s full card report for Saratoga.

Travers Day at Saratoga on Saturday is a horseplayer’s dream. There are 13 competitive races on the card including five graded stakes.

2010 champion two-year-old Uncle Mo makes his first start since April where the colt weakened to finish third in the Wood Memorial (G1) when he takes on a field of seven in the $250,000 King’s Bishop (G1).

The $1 million Travers (G1) drew the top three-year-olds in training, including Preakness (G1) winner Shackleford, Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Ruler On Ice, Haskell Invitational (G1) winner Coil, and Jim Dandy (G2) victor Stay Thirsty.

The New York Racing Association is offering up a $1 million Guaranteed Pick 4, which includes the $100,000 Victory Ride (G3), $250,000 Ballerina (G1), and King’s Bishop, and ends with the Travers.

Hurricane Irene is paying the area a visit, but not until Sunday, and Saturday’s weather looks perfect for an outstanding day of betting.

Here are a few longshots that you may want to include on your Pick 4 tickets:

Race 9 Victory Ride
#6 Hot Summer (8/1) returns off a three month break here for the Fawkes barn that is not having much luck at the meet (1 for 23). Her career best effort came two back winning the one turn mile Comely (G3) at the Big A, then she was third in the Black Eyed Susan (G2) at Pimlico. The winner of that race was Royal Delta, who won the Alabama (G1) in her most recent start and the runner up Buster’s Ready won the Mother Goose (G1), then was fourth in the CCA Oaks (G1). She put in a good work over the main track here and the barn is solid off the layoff, hitting at a 20% clip (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

Race 10 The Ballerina
#5 Devil by Design (8/1) won the Chicago ‘Cap (G3) last out over the polytrack at Arlington Park off a eight month layoff-and has a couple of snappy works since arriving at the Spa. She won the Lucy Scribner here last summer before running fourth in this race. She should get a lively early pace to run at and is going to get overlooked on the tote. If she moves forward a couple of lengths off her latest as I think she will, Mott has a shot of pulling off the upset here.

Race 11 The King’s Bishop
#4 Dominus (6/1) prompted the early pace and was no match for Stay Thirsty last out in the Jim Dandy (G2), checking in third. His last three starts around one turn are solid, a neck away from being perfect. The cut back to seven panels suits, and he likely goes off at a fair price here. He is out of the stakes winner Cuando ($330K) who has dropped five other winners.

Race 12 The Travers
We have seen nothing but upsets in Grade 1 races for three-year-olds this year, so let’s keep the trend going with #6 Raison d’Etat. The colt made his stakes debut last out in the Curlin where he stalked the early pacesetter from the outside, shied away from the whip a couple of times in the stretch and finished up well for the runner up spot. The winner was the Todd Pletcher Turbo Compressor, who was third in the Pegasus (G3) in his previous start and took advantage of an inside speed favoring racing strip to win the Curlin. Our top pick looks better with each start and still appears to have plenty of upside potential as he steps in with the big boys here. The colt has the pedigree to handle 1 1/4 miles. He is by A.P. Indy out of the seven time Grade 1 winner Sightseek ($2.4 million). The colt figures to get overlooked on the tote here with the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Jim Dandy winners in the race.

Go to our Handicapping Picks Page for Michael Dempsey’s full card report for Saratoga.

The Jockey Club recently engaged the services of McKinsey and Co. to examine the current problems that the racing industry faces. The report draws some very interesting conclusions. One of the major flaws that were highlighted was conflicting post times. The average horse racing bettor has known this for years, but this report breaks down how much more money would have been wagered if post times were coordinated better. According to the report if major stakes races were not run so closely together, betting handle would increase by more than 5%. Horse betting fans have been complaining about this for years. Hopefully the Jockey Club will work on this issue.

Other problems mentioned in the report include a shrinking base of horse bettors, an aging horse racing fan and a lack of off track betting facilities in large markets. Unless the horse wagering fan base grows the sport will die a slow death. Another interesting fact is that total racing days are down as are the number of horses entered. Total racing days have declined by 14% since 2000 and the number of starters has fallen by 23% over the last 20 years. While attendance has improved for major stakes races, horse racing fans are staying away from the track on regular racing days.

The report suggests that there are simple fixes to help horse wagering handle grow. The first is a reduction in the number of races carded. They also recommend an even further reduction in race days. (Look at the Monmouth Park experiment of only racing 3 days a week during the summer.) There conclusion is that bettors will wager more into fewer races.

The report surveyed horse bettors as to what they felt were major issues at the racetrack and in horse betting in general. One of the top problems was the takeout rate. We encourage all horse bettors to try and find a way to lower their take out, and in turn win more money from horse betting .One way is to use a non-pari-mutuel racebook. Another is to use a horse betting rebate shop. Not every US based horse betting rebate shop will accept new customers, so if you find this to be an issue use one of the non-pari-mutuel racebooks listed on this site.

Arlington Million
This weekend features quality horse racing from around the country. The big race this weekend is the Arlington Million. The betting favorites will be Cape Blanco and Gio Ponti. These two faced off last month at Belmont Park, with Cape Blanco winning easily. Gio Ponte won the Arlington Million in 2009. Other contenders include Mission Approved and Wigmore Hall. Longshot bettors might take a look at Rahystrada.

Beverly D.
Stacelita who comes off a third place finish in the United Nations at Monmouth Park should be the morning line favorite at odds of about 3-1. Top choices for this race are Fantasia, River Jetez and Pachattack.

Secretariat
The field looks wide open in this race. Ten three year olds are entered. Treasure Beach is listed as a 2-1 favorite, but the race looks wide open. Several horses are shipping n for this race. Try Newsdad as a longshot pick.

La Jolla Handicap
This Saturday at Del Mar seven horses will battle for the $150,000 La Hoya Handicap. The winner of the Santa Anita Derby, Midnight Interlude, is scheduled to run as is Surrey Star, who finished second to Midnight Interlude in their last meeting. Value bettors might want to take a shot with Burns, who should go off at betting odds of least 6-1.

Monmouth Oaks
Saturday 11 fillies are entered in the Monmouth Oaks. Lots of betting options in this race, but the favorite looks to be the best. Use Miss Valentine with Dance Quietly and Strike The Moon.

This Saturday the big money for 3-year-olds isn’t at Saratoga, Del Mar, or even Monmouth, it’s at small one-mile oval called Mountaineer Park in Chester, West Virginia. Ten horses from around the country as well as several local starters have been entered in the 1 1/8-mile West Virginia Derby (G2) which carries a hefty purse of $750,000. Of course, most of the horses who were on the triple crown trail opted for a shot at the more prestigious Jim Dandy or Haskell Invitational which were run last week. The entry of Haskell victor Coil’s stalemate Prayer For Relief, and the last horse to beat Coil, Dreamy Kid adds an extra element of intrigue for these late developing 3-year-olds. A standout performance in this race could mean a spot in the Travers at Saratoga on August 27th – a short three weeks away.

The winner of this race will most likely come from the ranks of the top three choices profiled below. This is a race historically won by smart connections and powerful shippers. While I’m sure the racing fans in West Virginia would love to see a local winner of this race – it won’t happen anytime soon with such a large purse attracting horsemen from around the country to compete.

Looking good in post position number one is the Bob Baffert trained Prayer for Relief. After making a positive switch from synthetic to dirt in the Iowa Derby (G3) on June 25 at Prairie Meadows, trainer Bob Baffert is looking to take this colt places. Last year Baffert accomplished a similar feat by running Concord Point in the Iowa and West Virginia Derbies and winning them both.

A deep closer you may want to look out for is Awesome Bet. While not finding much success on grass, trainer Steve Asmussen switched him to dirt where he became a new horse. He’s won his last three in a row including an impressive win where he made up 11 lengths in a come from behind victory in the Barbaro Stakes at Delaware Park.

Thanks to Coil’s impressive win in the Haskell stalemate Dreamy Kid is likely to be a shorter price than deserved at post time. Dreamy Kid was a long shot stakes winner in the Swaps Stakes (G2) at Hollywood Park where he caught Coil by a head at 19-1 odds. This will be his second lifetime start on dirt, his first being a third place finish in a maiden race at Santa Anita.

The 1 1/8-mile West Virginia Derby (G2) is the highlight of a special nine-race card and will be run as the penultimate race on the card.

Two weeks into the Saratoga meeting and we have seen some amazing performances, and the third week should offer plenty more along with many outstanding betting opportunities.

The week starts with Wednesday’s $75,000 John Morrissey, a 6 ½ furlong test on the main track for New York breds that drew a field of seven with two standouts.

It will be the speed of the veteran Be Bullish against the late closing Ibboyee, with the speedy runner sent out by trainer George Weaver, a former top assistant to the trainer of the late runner, four time Eclipse award winner Todd Pletcher.

We have a trio of Grade 1 races coming up this weekend at the Spa.

On Saturday, three-year-old fillies take center stage in the $350,000 Test, and older runners will go in the $750,000 Whitney Handicap at 1 1/8 miles.

On Sunday, sprinters will be in action in the $250,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap at six furlongs on the main track.

The co-feature on Sunday is the $150,000 Honorable Miss (G2) for fillies and mares going six panels on the main track.

All four of the races will be televised live on the VERSUS Network as part of the “Summer at Saratoga” series.

The one hour telecasts on both days get underway at 5:00 ET.

For full card analysis for Saratoga, go to our Handicapping Picks Page.

Let’s start off the week the right way with a look at Wednesday’s featured betting race of the day:

Saratoga Race 8 The John Morrissey Post time 4:55 ET
#6 Be Bullish 8/5
#7 Ibboyee 7/5
#1 Mineswept 5/1
#5 Naughty New Yorker 10/1

#6 Be Bullish dueled for the early lead, fell back, and came again to grab the lead despite appearing to shy away from the left handed whip and drew away late to win by two lengths over Alw-3 optional claimers. The gelding was claimed out of the race by owner Mike Repole, who has had most of his recent claims with Todd Pletcher, but this guy lands with former Pletcher assistant George Weaver, who has only hit the claim box once in the past five years. The gelding has landed in the exacta in six of seven starts this year and is always tough when facing state breds. He has landed in the exacta in his last eight starts when facing New York breds including a pair of stakes wins and three runner up finishes in state bred stakes company. The gelding owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and has the tactical edge over the morning line chalk in here.

#7 Ibboyee makes his first start off a two month break for the Pletcher barn. The late running colt stumbled coming out of the gate and was not a factor after a wide trip in the Met Mile (G1) last out. Two back he made a good late rally to finish a close up third in the Churchill Downs (G2)going seven furlongs. He has had two trips over the Spa main track, breaking his maiden in his debut in ’09 and checking in second beaten a neck in the state bred Albany last summer. He will be flying late.

Wagering:
WIN: #6 to win at 8/5 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7

By Sunday evening we should have a grasp on who the major players in the three-year-old division will be.

On Saturday we have the $500,000 Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga, featuring Stay Thirsty and Brilliant Speed, the runner up and third place finisher in the Belmont Stakes (G1), along with Peter Pan (G2) winner Alternation and Dwyer (G2) winner Dominus hooking up at nine furlongs.

Then on Sunday we have the $1 million Haskell Invitational (G1) at Monmouth Park, featuring a showdown of Preakness (G1) winner Shackleford and Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice.

With Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Animal Kingdom recovering from surgery and at least three months away from hitting the track, the three-year-old division is wide open.

The Jim Dandy and Haskell may separate the contenders from the pretenders, and the $1 million Travers (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 27 will likely produce the leader in the clubhouse for the Eclipse Award for the top three year old.

It was tough to separate the top four contenders in Sunday’s Haskell, which will be televised live on ABC.

Last year’s Haskell was won by Lookin At Lucky for trainer Bob Baffert. Can there by another “lucky” finish this year?

The hard knocking J J’s Lucky Train is an intriguing longshot and gets a good look at what should be a generous price.

Monmouth Park Race 12 The Haskell Invitational G1 Post time 5:43 ET

#7 J J’s Lucky Train 20/1
#1 Coil 3/1
#3 Pants On Fire 4/1
#6 Ruler On Ice 4/1

#7 J J’s Lucky Train tries nine furlongs and Grade 1 company for the first time here for the William Anderson barn and should be a generous price. This guy seldom runs a bad one, landing in the exacta in eight of his ten career starts. Last out in the Woody Stephens (G2) at seven furlongs in the mud he made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot behind loose on the lead Justin Phillip over an inside speed favoring racing strip. Two back in the Derby Trial (G3) at Churchill Downs he was rank early in between foes, fought the jock for more than half the trip and finished up with some interest for third. The runner up Dominus came back to win the Dwyer (G2) while the fifth place finisher Indiano came back to win the Unbridled at Calder on June 11, then won the Carry Back (G2) on July 9. The main question mark is if he can handle the extra ground, and he did run well going two turns on the inner track at the Big A early this year in runner up finishes in the Whirlaway and Count Fleet. He should get overlooked here and if Lopez can get him to relax early he has shown he has enough fight to be in the mix late at a generous price.

#1 Coil ships in from the left coast for the Bob Baffert barn that won this race last year with Lookin At Lucky. The colt was beaten just a head last out in the Swaps (G2) in his first start at nine furlongs by Dreamy Kid, who was 19/1 and coming off a fourth in a Alw-1 optional claimer. The colt won the Affirmed (G3) two back in his first start around two turns, and popped a 106 Beyer beating Alw-1 optional claimers off a six month layoff three back. Baffert takes the blinkers off (41% winners with a +ROI with the move) and it is tough to gauge just how good this guy is. He is by Point Given out of a Theatrical mare that has dropped one other foal to race, Familiar Shine, with her lone win coming on the main track at Thistledown going a mile. When Baffert ships east they are usually live and this guy still appears to have plenty of upside potential.

#3 Pants On Fire is one of two in here with a win over the main track, taking the Pegasus (G3) in a sharp effort despite stumbling out of the gate. He was eighth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and took some play, sent off at 8/1 off his win in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He picks up a new jockey today in Elvis Trujillo and of the two Kelly Breen runners I am hoping this guy goes off at the more generous price. His last start should serve as a good prep for today and his win in the Bayou three back did come at nine furlongs.

Wagering:

WIN: #7 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,3,6,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,3,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7

This Saturday all the attention will be focused on Saratoga Race Course for the 48th running of the Jim Dandy (G2). With a purse of a half-million dollars, one would hope for more than 7 horses to show up, but the division is split with other top 3-year-olds entered in Sunday’s Haskell Invitational (G1) at Monmouth Park competing for a cool million. The ultimate goal for the horses entered in the Jim Dandy is the Travers Stakes to be run on August 27. With a purse of $1 million and the ability to add significantly to future stud fees, the “Mid-Summer Derby” is the pinnacle of Saratoga’s summer program.

The bulk of the money bet on this race will go towards 4 of the 7 entrants, and many are predicting several lukewarm co-favorites at around 7-2 or 3-1. However, if you have a contrarian opinion – it could be a good chance to cash in on a longshot.

The Jim Dandy will go off as the 10th race on Saturday. NBC Sports will be providing coverage from 5-6 p.m. EST on the VERSUS network as part of their “Summer at Saratoga” series.

1 Moonshine Mullin 15-1

While Moonshine Mullin has shown to be a capable allowance horse on synthetics, he didn’t fare too well at Gulfstream on the turf and will be making his first start on dirt in this Grade 2 event. Without even a single workout over a dirt surface, it’s hard to back this horse as a legitimate contender.

2 Dominus 3-1

This lightly raced colt has had a compact season with only 3 starts. His front-running win in the Dwyer (G2) was done all on the front end. While there isn’t a noticeable speed bias at Saratoga yet, a front running horse like Dominus is always dangerous on a fast dry track. His speed figures show he has a legitimate shot and his price may move upward as he isn’t a house hold name after missing the Derby trail.

3 Brilliant Speed 7-2

As the only Grade 1 winner in the field Brilliant Speed deserves some respect. However, his turf and synthetic form are much better than most of his dirt appearances. Brillant Speed showed he had staying power when he ran 3rd in the Belmont Stakes (G1) at odds of 10-1 but that was on a sloppy track – leaving his dirt form still a mystery.

4 Scotus 8-1

Scotus scored a nice Grade 3 victory in the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs on June 18, and is looking to step up in the Jim Dandy. His last workout was a sharp 5 furlong move in 1:02 flat at Saratoga. If you’re looking for a price with a legitimate shot Scotus is your option.

5 Will’s Wildcat 15-1

Will’s Wildcat ran fourth in the Long Branch at Monmouth Park on July 9 but that’s a far cry from the field he’ll have to deal with in the Jim Dandy. He was the fastest of 89 horses at the distance for his last workout going 4 furlongs in 47:20. When he gets out of the gate OK he’s front-running speed horse. This could hook him up with Dominus setting it up for an off-the pace type in the home stretch.

6 Stay Thirsty 5-2

Stay Thirsty was runner up in the Belmont Stakes (G1) over a sloppy track, and now fully out of the shadow of stable mate Uncle Mo. Pletcher does well with his top horses on plenty of rest and Stay Thirsty has had lots of time (49 days) to recover from a grueling Belmont. Though he is the likely favorite in this race, a bet on Stay Thirsty at anything less than 7-2 is simply not a good value.

7 Alternation 7-2

Won the Peter Pan (G2) by a head over Adios Charlie at the same distance of 1 1/8 miles. After more than 2 months rest and skipping the Belmont Alternation is ready to come back to the racetrack. While his form in the Peter Pan was great there was another 1 1/8 mile race that he didn’t fare so well in – the Arkansas Derby (G1) where he finished 6th after a slow break.

SELECTIONS: #2 DOMINUS… #4 SCOTUS… #6 STAY THIRSTY

Friday-night racing has grown into a popular spot on the social scene, with live bands, happy hours, and younger crowds gathering to “see and be seen.” Yet within the party atmosphere at Del Mar on Friday is an important stakes race for horses looking to secure a spot in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships at Churchill Downs in November.

Race 7, with a 7:00PT post time, is the $125,000 Cougar II Handicap-G3. This race is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series, offering the winner a free trip into the Breeders’ Cup Marathon on Friday, November 4 at Churchill Downs. The race winner will have all Breeders’ Cup entry fees paid, and receive an additional $10,000 travel allowance.

A field of eight older, long-winded runners, will run 1 ½ miles over the main track at Del Mar, and the race appears to be a competitive betting event. Note that half the field is still eligible for N1X allowance conditions.

BOURBON BAY

No doubt the class of the field, having won four Grade II races during a 19-race career. Those wins came at distances ranging from 1 ¼ miles to 1 ¾ miles, so there is little doubt about his ability to handle tonight’s trip. The biggest question is whether he can win on the main track – his only previous race over a synthetic track came back in February 2009, resulting in a fourth-place finish. Has run well in a pair of Grade I races since returning from a trip to Dubai in March, and could be sitting on a peak effort.

PODE IR

Tough to make a real case for him coming off a 5th-place finish in a minor stake at Pleasanton. He failed to beat a single horse in two previous starts against graded company. He was a winner at this distance in Brazil, yet he beat only three rivals. His only win in the US came in a five-horse field. Doubtful.

ERBEIA

One of several in here eligible for a N1X allowance race, having scored his only win against maidens 17 months ago. His only previous attempt against graded company came in March 2010 where he finished dead-last. Makes his first start for John Sadler, a solid betting angle, and acts as if he will like the added distance, but he’ll need a career-best effort to contend for the top spot.

SETSUKOP

On paper he’s the fastest horse in the field, posting 102 and 100 Beyer Speed Figures in two of his last three starts. The bad news is he is just 1-for-14 lifetime, making him another eligible for N1X conditions. Lost the Santa Anita handicap-G1 by a nose in early March, and wasn’t disgraced recently in the Californian-G2 or Hollywood Gold Cup-G1. Yet go back to January and notice he was beaten by PODE IR AND OILISBLACKGOLD.

TIME GOES BY

Brings an 11-race losing streak to the table, having posted his last victory in August 2009. He is the only runner in the field with a win over this track, although that came even further back in August 2008. Off the board in three previous starts against graded company, and unable to beat claimers recently, but he was scooped up by Mike Mitchell nine days ago for $40,000 and Mitchell is one of the best around at transforming similar runners into long-distance graded winners.

DAHOUD

Toss a poor effort in April and this gelding has been pretty consistent since arriving from New Zealand. He has never run over a synthetic surface but has trained regularly over the fake dirt. Appears to be the controlling speed, and note his narrow loss at this distance in the San Luis Rey-G2 at Santa Anita in March. Will take these as far as he can.

MINDBLOWER

Has shown nothing since winning his career debut in April 2010. He hasn’t finished within ten lengths of the winner in four subsequent starts, beating a total of three horses. Even with red-hot Garrett Gomez picking up the mount he’s tough to like.

OILISBLACKGOLD

He was 6/1 odds when he won his only race against maidens at Fairplex Park ten months ago. He’s earned a paycheck in every start since, yet five losses against N1X runners label him an outsider for the top spot tonight. Narrow loss to PODE IR in January doesn’t carry much weight, although he did finish in front of SETSUKO that day. Nice comeback off the bench, and has a recent bullet work over the track, but another minor award may be his ceiling.

SELECTIONS – BOUBON BAY, DAHOUD, SETSUKO, TIME GOES BY

It’s no secret that racing in the U.S. has been in turmoil this year. We’re not talking about short fields, decreased wagering or medication issues. We’re talking about the real action on the racetrack.

In the latest NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Association) Thoroughbred Poll, five of the top ten spots are held by females, one of whom is on the shelf for the remainder of 2011 due to injury. Of the five males on the list, one is likely out for the rest of the year with an injury and another was retired due to injury this week.

Meeting for the sixth time in the Delaware Handicap-G2, BLIND LUCK and HAVRE DE GRACE threw down another memorable stretch duel, with the West Coast invader prevailing by a short nose. In what has developed into the best rivalry in racing, BLIND LUCK now leads 4-2, and her victory has her sitting atop the current NTRA poll. HAVRE DE GRACE is ranked second, and could get a shot at redemption in the Personal Ensign-G1 at Saratoga. Both fillies are on a path leading to the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic-G1 at Churchill Downs in November.

Given the current state of the handicap division for older mares, there are many hoping that one, or both, of the top-ranked ladies may ultimately point for the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1.

GOLDIKOVA, who has not raced in the U.S. this year but is pointing for an unprecedented four-peat in the Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 comes in at #7 on the NTRA poll. Obviously she is one of the best female runners of all time, but with only one win this year across the pond, for her to be ranked seventh on the current U.S. poll speaks volumes as the lack of “stars” in the states.

AWESOME MARIA dropped from #5 to #8 this week despite being perfect in four starts this year, but she is done for remainder of 2011 with an injury.

IT’S TRICKY, who won the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks-G1 for her second consecutive Grade I victory, jumped into the poll at #10.

The top-ranked male in the poll (#3) is FIRST DUDE. A winner of three-straight races under the care of Bob Baffert, most recently the Hollywood Gold Cup-G1, this four-year-old was retired on Monday with a tendon injury. His absence clearly muddles an already murky handicap division.

TIZWAY, #4 in the latest poll, is now the highest-ranked older horse in training. While he was impressive in winning the Met Mile-G1 earlier this summer, that stands as his only win this year. He had previously finished third in both the Charles Town Classic Stakes-G3 and Gulfstream Park Handicap-G2, not exactly the kind of results that will scare anyone away come November when the world descends on Churchill Downs for the Breeders’ Cup.

All is not lost for Baffert, as his “other dude,” GAME ON DUDE, currently stands at #5. Much of that is based on his March win in the Santa Anita Handicap-G1, and he is currently riding a three-race losing streak. To his credit, his Hollywood Gold Cup loss to FIRST DUDE was by the narrowest of margins.

ANIMAL KINGDOM (#6), the only three-year-old male in the current poll, is sidelined with an injury and isn’t expected back until next year. This division is up for grabs.

The four-year-old TWIRLING CANDY, considered by many (especially those in California) as the most talented horse in training, stands at #9 in this week’s poll after finishing third behind FIRST DUDE and GAME ON DUDE in the Hollywood Gold Cup. He may be talented, but he is also a head-case and is a serious question mark at 1 ¼ miles – the distance of the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

A few years back the Breeders’ Cup expanded to a Friday-Saturday schedule, with Friday being billed as “Ladies’ Day.” That entire premise could flip-flop this year if we can get either BLIND LUCK or HAVRE DE GRACE to join GOLDIKOVA on Saturday. Right now, after these three ladies, what else is there to look forward to?