2011 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds

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We’re just two months out from the 2011 Kentucky Derby. This year’s signature race for three-year-olds will be held at historic Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 7. For some potential Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown contenders, there is still plenty of time to work through some “kinks” in preparation for the big race. For others, time is running out.

The Kentucky Derby is limited to 20 starters, so it is imperative for every three-year-old to perform well enough to land a spot in the Top Twenty on the Graded Earnings List – the deciding factor when it comes to naming the final field.

Top 2011 Kentucky Derby Betting Contenders

Here is an early look at the top contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. The Graded Earnings Rank for each contender is as of March 7.

UNCLE MO

Graded Earnings Rank: 1

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 108

Last Race: 11/06/10 … Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 (1st)

Next Race: 03/12/11 … $100,000 Timely Writer (GP)

Analysis: Last year’s champion two-year-old, he was dominant in winning all three starts. His first start of 2011 will come in a one-mile stake at Gulfstream Park where he figures to be a prohibitive favorite. His only significant Kentucky Derby prep is expected to be the Wood Memorial-G1 on April 9. If he heads to Louisville undefeated, he could be one of the strongest Kentucky Derby Betting favorites we’ve seen recently.

GOURMET DINNER

Graded Earnings Rank: 2

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 94

Last Race: 02/26/11 … Fountain of Youth-G2 (2nd)

Next Race: 04/03/11 … Florida Derby-G1 (GP) or 04/09/11 … Santa Anita Derby-G1

Analysis: Consistent runner hasn’t shied away from a challenge, racing eight times from Florida to California. His biggest win came in the lucrative Delta Jackpot-G3 last November, and that is also his most recent win. Finished 3rd behind Dialed In in the Holy Bull-G3 and 2nd behind Soldat in the Fountain of Youth-G2. Yet to prove he’s fast enough to win a race like the Derby.

J P’S GUSTO

Graded Earnings Rank: 3

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 92

Last Race: 02/21/11 … Southwest-G3 (2nd)

Next Race: 03/19/11 … Rebel-G2 (OP)

Analysis: Reeled off four consecutive wins last year, highlighted by a romp in the Del Mar Futurity-

G1, to stamp himself as one of the top three-year-olds in California. Switched from trainer David Hofmans to Joe Petalino and made his 2011 debut at Oaklawn Park, where he ran a credible 2nd. He’s yet to win beyond seven furlongs and yet to win on conventional dirt.

SOLDAT

Graded Earnings Rank: 4

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 103

Last Race: 02/26/11 … Fountain of Youth-G2 (1st)

Next Race: 04/03/11 … Florida Derby-G1 (GP)

Analysis: Rising star in the division, he followed his 10 ¾-length romp in the slop with a front-running win in the Fountain of Youth-G2. He’s also a graded stakes winner on turf, and hasn’t finished worse than 2nd in seven career starts. Has yet to win over dirt without the early lead, so the upcoming Florida Derby could be a big test to prove he’s capable of rating effectively.

COMMA TO THE TOP

Graded Earnings Rank: 5

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 95

Last Race: 02/12/11 … El Camino Real Derby-G3 (4th)

Next Race: 03/12/11 … San Felipe-G2 (SA)

Analysis: Former claimer won five consecutive races to close out his 2010 campaign, including the CashCall Futurity-G1 at Hollywood Park. Very disappointing effort at Golden Gate Fields to kick off his 2011 season, and some are wondering if he has already peaked (11 races already). Will try conventional dirt for the first time in the San Felipe-G2. Right now he’s one of several contenders that have shown no desire to rate.

BIONDETTI

Graded Earnings Rank: 6

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 86

Last Race: NA

Next Race: NA

Analysis: European three-year-old finished 4th in last November’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was not an early nominee to the Triple Crown and there are no indications he is being pointed towards the Kentucky Derby.

ROGUE ROMANCE

Graded Earnings Rank: 7

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 90

Last Race: 02/19/11 … Risen Star-G3 (3rd)

Next Race: 03/26/11 … Louisiana Derby-G2 (FG)

Analysis: A graded stakes winner on turf, he has yet to prove equally effective on the main track. Finished a distant 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 and then 3rd again in the Risen Star-G3 at Fair Grounds in his 2011 debut. He didn’t have the best of trips last time and is capable of improving moving forward. He’ll need to in order to be considered a major player.

MUCHO MACHO MAN

Graded Earnings Rank: 8

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 99

Last Race: 02/19/11 … Risen Star-G3 (1st)

Next Race: 03/26/11 … Louisiana Derby-G2 (FG)

Analysis: After running well, but being unable to win, in a trio of races against To Honor and Serve and Dialed In, he notched his first victory over winners in the Risen Star-G3. Seems more relaxed when racing around two turns, and he has run fast enough to be in the discussion of top Kentucky Derby contenders.

STAY THIRSTY

Graded Earnings Rank: 9

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 89

Last Race: 03/05/11 … Gotham-G3 (1st)

Next Race: 04/03/11 … Florida Derby-G1 (GP) or 04/16/11 … Arkansas Derby-G1 (OP)

Analysis: He’s been living in the shadow of stablemate Uncle Mo, but earned himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby by winning the Gotham-G3 at Aqueduct in his 2011 debut. The field was not a strong one, but it was nice to see him relax and win around two turns. Still a little bit “green” but has the breeding to handle the demanding distances ahead.

TO HONOR AND SERVE

Graded Earnings Rank: 10

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 102

Last Race: 02/26/11 … Fountain of Youth-G2 (3rd)

Next Race: 04/03/11 … Florida Derby-G1 (GP)

Analysis: Daylight winner of the Nashua-G2 and Remsen-G2 last November, defeating Mucho Macho Man both times. Wasn’t expected to be fully cranked for the Fountain of Youth-G2, but most were expecting better than his tiring 3rd behind Soldat and Gourmet Dinner. It’s too early to give up on him, but he does need to bounce back with a much better effort in the Florida Derby.

SANTIVA

Graded Earnings Rank: 11

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 91

Last Race: 02/19/11 … Risen Star-G3 (2nd)

Next Race: 03/26/11 … Louisiana Derby-G2 (FG)

Analysis: Ran well to finish 2nd in the Risen Star in his 2011 debut, and more importantly he ran much faster than he did as a two-year-old. Already a graded stakes winner over the track at Churchill Downs, he could be an undervalued contender if he takes another big step forward in the upcoming Louisiana Derby.

DIALED IN

Graded Earnings Rank: 12

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 97

Last Race: 03/06/11 … OC62k/N2X (2nd)

Next Race: 04/03/11 … Florida Derby-G1 (GP)

Analysis: Impressive winner of his first two starts, including the Holy Bull-G3 over Mucho Macho Man. He took an unconventional approach to the Kentucky Derby, running in an allowance race against older company at Gulfstream Park. He didn’t win that race, but ran well given some traffic trouble and a slow pace. Should have gained valuable seasoning from that race and continues to be one of the more intriguing Kentucky Derby contenders.

DECISIVE MOMENT

Graded Earnings Rank: 13

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 91

Last Race: 02/19/11 … Risen Star-G3 (5th)

Next Race: NA

Analysis: Delta Jackpot-G3 runner-up behind Gourmet Dinner last November, he may have run himself off the Triple Crown Trail with a 5th-place finish in the Risen Star behind Mucho Macho Man, Santiva and Rogue Romance. He was allowed a clear lead that day but gave way too easily after a half-mile. Does not appear to be a legitimate contender at this point.

JAYCITO

Graded Earnings Rank: 14

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 88

Last Race: 11/06/10 … Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 (7th)

Next Race: 03/12/11 … San Felipe-G2 (SA)

Analysis: Unraced since his eventful journey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November, he has been working very well for new trainer Bob Baffert. Traded punches with J P’s Gusto last year in California, scoring his only win in the Norfolk-G1 at Hollywood Park. Playing catch up at this point, but if anyone can pull it off it’s Baffert.

ANTHONY’S CROSS

Graded Earnings Rank: 15

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 91

Last Race: 02/12/11 … Robert B. Lewis-G2 (1st)

Next Race: 04/09/11 … Santa Anita Derby-G1 (SA)

Analysis: Raced close to the pace in the Robert B. Lewis, and took advantage when the heavy favorite packed it in. He was game in keeping his nose in front through the stretch, although the “come home” time was pretty slow. To his credit both wins have come around two turns on dirt, including a maiden score at Churchill Downs. Improving colt needs to run faster.

ARCHARCHARCH

Graded Earnings Rank: 16

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 89

Last Race: 02/21/11 … Southwest-G3 (1st)

Next Race: 03/19/11 … Rebel-G2 (OP)

Analysis: Got the early jump turning for home and beat J P’s Gusto at Oaklawn Park, but there was nothing impressive about his winning time. Will need to validate his effort in the upcoming Rebel Stakes against a tougher field to be included in the conversation as a major Kentucky Derby contender.

MADMAN DIARIES

Graded Earnings Rank: 17

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 89

Last Race: 02/26/11 … Hutcheson-G2 (7th)

Next Race: NA

Analysis: Not initially nominated to the Triple Crown and probably ended any hope of heading down that road with a 7th-place finish in the recent Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

RIVETING REASON

Graded Earnings Rank: 18

Top Beyer Speed Figure: 90

Last Race: 02/12/11 … Robert B. Lewis-G2 (2nd)

Next Race: 03/12/11 … San Felipe-G2 (SA) or 04/09/11 Santa Anita Derby-G1 (SA)

Analysis: Lost a hard-fought battle to Anthony’s Cross in the Robert B. Lewis. Last year he finished 3rd in consecutive starts behind Jaycito and J P’s Gusto, but wasn’t a serious threat to win either of those races. He already has nine starts under his belt, so time is running out for him to produce an effort that says he’s good enough to beat the division’s best.

If we exclude BIONDETTI and MADMAN DIARIES, we’re left with 16 runners who are currently part of the Kentucky Derby conversation. BLUE LASER and WILLCOX INN are currently ranked 19 and 20, respectively, on the Graded Earnings List, but neither appears to be actively pointing towards the Kentucky Derby at this point.

Those currently holding down spots 21-30 are on the hot seat, and it is from this group that we may see the most activity in the weeks ahead. Among them are three very intriguing contenders we need to keep an eye on.

BRETHREN (23) is an undefeated half-brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. He is expected to make his next start in the Tampa Bay Derby-G2 on March 12.

THE FACTOR (29) is a freakishly fast colt from Bob Baffert. After his win in the San Vicente-G2 he was mentioned as being headed to the Sunland Derby-G3, but it now appears that he will travel to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel Stakes-G3 on March 19.

FLASHPOINT (29) easily won his debut at Aqueduct and jumped right up to crush the field in the Hutcheson-G2 at Gulfstream Park. His next start could come in either the Swale-G2 or Florida Derby-G1, both on April 3.

The Factor and Flashpoint both earned 102 Beyer Speed Figures for their recent wins, highest for any Triple Crown prep so far. If either, or both, are capable of handling two turns, they could prove very legitimate contenders come The First Saturday in May.

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