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Horse Betting » General » Travers Day Preview: Perfect Storm for Longshots

Travers Day Preview: Perfect Storm for Longshots

By Mike Dempsey

Travers Day at Saratoga on Saturday is a horseplayer’s dream. There are 13 competitive races on the card including five graded stakes.

2010 champion two-year-old Uncle Mo makes his first start since April where the colt weakened to finish third in the Wood Memorial (G1) when he takes on a field of seven in the $250,000 King’s Bishop (G1).

The $1 million Travers (G1) drew the top three-year-olds in training, including Preakness (G1) winner Shackleford, Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Ruler On Ice, Haskell Invitational (G1) winner Coil, and Jim Dandy (G2) victor Stay Thirsty.

The New York Racing Association is offering up a $1 million Guaranteed Pick 4, which includes the $100,000 Victory Ride (G3), $250,000 Ballerina (G1), and King’s Bishop, and ends with the Travers.

Hurricane Irene is paying the area a visit, but not until Sunday, and Saturday’s weather looks perfect for an outstanding day of betting.

Here are a few longshots that you may want to include on your Pick 4 tickets:

Race 9 Victory Ride
#6 Hot Summer (8/1) returns off a three month break here for the Fawkes barn that is not having much luck at the meet (1 for 23). Her career best effort came two back winning the one turn mile Comely (G3) at the Big A, then she was third in the Black Eyed Susan (G2) at Pimlico. The winner of that race was Royal Delta, who won the Alabama (G1) in her most recent start and the runner up Buster’s Ready won the Mother Goose (G1), then was fourth in the CCA Oaks (G1). She put in a good work over the main track here and the barn is solid off the layoff, hitting at a 20% clip (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

Race 10 The Ballerina
#5 Devil by Design (8/1) won the Chicago ‘Cap (G3) last out over the polytrack at Arlington Park off a eight month layoff-and has a couple of snappy works since arriving at the Spa. She won the Lucy Scribner here last summer before running fourth in this race. She should get a lively early pace to run at and is going to get overlooked on the tote. If she moves forward a couple of lengths off her latest as I think she will, Mott has a shot of pulling off the upset here.

Race 11 The King’s Bishop
#4 Dominus (6/1) prompted the early pace and was no match for Stay Thirsty last out in the Jim Dandy (G2), checking in third. His last three starts around one turn are solid, a neck away from being perfect. The cut back to seven panels suits, and he likely goes off at a fair price here. He is out of the stakes winner Cuando ($330K) who has dropped five other winners.

Race 12 The Travers
We have seen nothing but upsets in Grade 1 races for three-year-olds this year, so let’s keep the trend going with #6 Raison d’Etat. The colt made his stakes debut last out in the Curlin where he stalked the early pacesetter from the outside, shied away from the whip a couple of times in the stretch and finished up well for the runner up spot. The winner was the Todd Pletcher Turbo Compressor, who was third in the Pegasus (G3) in his previous start and took advantage of an inside speed favoring racing strip to win the Curlin. Our top pick looks better with each start and still appears to have plenty of upside potential as he steps in with the big boys here. The colt has the pedigree to handle 1 1/4 miles. He is by A.P. Indy out of the seven time Grade 1 winner Sightseek ($2.4 million). The colt figures to get overlooked on the tote here with the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Jim Dandy winners in the race.

Go to our Handicapping Picks Page for Michael Dempsey’s full card report for Saratoga.