Triple Crown Horse Betting Update – Anyone Stepping Up?

By Joey Adams

Triple Crown Horse BettingWe’re nearing the halfway point of the Triple Crown Prep betting season, with 11 classic preliminaries in the books. While we have seen several impressive performances, have we seen anyone step to the front in a definitive manner? If you are a Beyer Speed Figure advocate the answer would be “no.”

Here are the Triple Crown Betting Preps run to date, ranked in order of highest Beyer Speed Figure earned by the winner:

102 – THE FACTOR in the San Vicente at Santa Anita
102 – FLASHPOINT in the Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park
98 – TAPIZAR in the Sham at Santa Anita (injured)
97 – DIALED IN in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park
96 – SOLDAT in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park
94 – MUCHO MACHO MAN in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds
93 – SILVER MEDALLION in the El Camino Real at Golden Gate Fields
90 – ANTHONY’S CROSS in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita
89 – ARCHARCHARCH in the Southwest at Oaklawn Park
83 – BRETHREN in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs
82 – WILKINSON in the Lecomte at Fair Grounds

What immediately jumps off the page is that the 102 Beyer Speed Figures earned by THE FACTOR and FLASHPOINT came in races at seven furlongs. They are both freaky fast, but both still need to prove themselves around two turns.

That leaves us with nine Triple Crown Preps at distances of one mile or longer, and not one of them has produced a Beyer Speed Figure above 98. That could prove troubling with two-year-old champion and division leader UNCLE MO yet to be unleashed in 2011. He is expected to make his seasonal debut on March 12 at Gulfstream Park.

UNCLE MO ran just three times last year, but earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure in his career debut and a whopping 108 figure in winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. There is no guarantee that UNCLE MO will be better this year than he was in 2010, but looking at the Triple Crown preps so far, he may not have to be.

In addition to THE FACTOR and FLASHPOINT, there have been five other triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures earned this year by three-year-olds: TRAVELIN MAN (106, 6F), BIND (105, 6F), FORT HUGHES (104, 6F), SOLDAT (103, 9F), and SWAY AWAY (101, 7F).

Of those five, only SOLDAT earned his figure at a route of ground (beyond seven furlongs). Yet it didn’t come in his recent Fountain of Youth victory – it came in an allowance race in the slop where he was alone on the lead. The jury is still out.

MUCHO MACH MAN earned a mediocre 94 while winning the Risen Star, but he had previously run a 99, suggesting he’s on the cusp of joining the division’s elite. DIALED IN earned a 97 in winning the Holy Bull, a 22-point improvement over his only other start, suggesting the sky could be the limit.

Where does that leave us 65 days away from the Kentucky Derby? Pretty much right where we left off following the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November – there’s UNCLE MO and then there’s everyone else. If he comes back even better than last year, he could cruise into Louisville, Kentucky as one of the heaviest Derby horse betting favorites we’ve seen in recent history.

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