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Value Can Be Found on the Grass

By Joey Adams

An overflow of entries has resulted in the $70,000 Riskaverse being split into two divisions Thursday at Saratoga. Both divisions offer full fields and plenty of value opportunities for the handicapper. The first division goes as Race 4 and it has drawn 13 three-year-old fillies, including one Also Eligible and two Main Track Only entrants. This race will be run at one mile over the inner turf course, and the handicapper should note that of 32 races over this course and distance at the meet, only 5 betting favorites have found the winner’s circle.

2-SPARKY’S DREAM … (ML 12/1) … This barn has caught fire of late, yet they need to work some magic with this filly who is 1 for 13 lifetime. She has been taking home minor awards while mired in the N1X ranks and she is 0 for 12 over the grass. The inside post has produced only one winner over this course and distance. She has much to overcome.

1-SENADA … (ML 4/1) … Finished full of run after a rough trip and just missed against older company. She has shown steady improvement in recent starts and may only need a clean trip to find the winner’s circle. Expectations have always been high for this $800,000 purchase.

3-HOUSE OF GRACE … (ML 5/1) … Making her third start of the year and getting a bit of class relief after facing Grade II company last time out. She finished 8th that day, yet she was only three lengths behind the winner. She is more seasoned than many in here and this Godolphin runner may be ready to put it all together.

4-DATTT ECHO … (ML 30/1) … She has missed the board in her last four starts and has not won a race since last November when she scored in a sprint over the main track. She is reunited with Jose Lezcano who was aboard that day, but little from her current form indicates that she should be more than an early factor in this spot.

5-AWESOME MARIA … (ML 3/1) … Morning-line favorite is a Grade II winner and in her most recent race she lost by only a head to Devil May Care in a Grade I. That establishes her class. The flip-side is that she has not been to the races in 11 months and she has never run over turf. She does show a pair of recent turf works for Todd Pletcher, who has assumed training duties. Would be no surprise to see her win this, but there are enough question marks to require a fair price.

6-IN TE DOMINE … (ML 8/1) … She has won her last two starts, including a $100,000 stake last time out over state-bred company. Her Beyer Speed Figures are a bit weak, but Linda Rice is having another banner year with her turf starters and has been very strong with runners wheeling back at the meet. Would lean towards using her somewhere on the tickets.

7-SHIRLEY SHE CAN … (ML 20/1) … Saw her two-race win streak come to a crashing halt when 8th in a similar spot last month. At her best when on, or near the lead early, and she could be in for a wide trip with speed signed on to her inside. Borel and Zito fans will get a big price.

8-TIDAL POOL … (ML 10/1) … The morning-line price way too low for my liking on a filly I felt was over the top early this spring. Similar price last time out when she pulled up the rear in the Test-G1 over the main track. Lukas switching gears today by sending her long over the grass. The competition is easier but this gal may simply need some time away.

9-SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN … (ML 7/2) … Hard to knock a filly who has yet to miss the exacta in six career starts. Just missed last time out while rallying from way back over this course and distance. Always respect a turf runner from this barn, especially those ridden by Garrett Gomez, but there are concerns that she may prefer a bit more distance.

10-SILVER LA BELLE … (ML 12/1) … Makes her first start in nearly two months and her first over the turf. She is a half-sister to multiple GSW turfer Silverfoot and connections entered her for a turf race at Churchill Downs in May – it was washed to the main track, and she won. Needs to run the fastest race of her career today and doing so from the far outside post will not be easy.

11-NEENIE’S HOUSE … (AE, ML 8/1) … No match for Saratoga maidens two starts back so she went to Monmouth Park and promptly romped by six lengths. Either the competition there is much weaker, or she really turned things around in her second start off the bench. Her last-race Beyer Speed Figure is a solid fit against this bunch, although leaning towards making her prove it all over again.

12-SHINE UPON … (MTO, ML 6/1) … Hoping for rain and if she goes she will be dropping back in against her own age. She won the first three starts of her career, yet things haven’t gone as smoothly since. Not convinced she’s a top contender even with a surface switch.

1A-BAHAMA BOUND … (MTO, ML 4/1) … No disgrace when 4th behind Devil May Care in the Coaching Club American Oaks-G1 and this is certainly an easier spot. She has won 3 of 4 starts at the one-mile distance on dirt, and her only loss came by a neck. Trainer Barclay Tagg has legitimate contenders regardless of the weather.

SELECTIONS: 3-House of Grace, 9-Snow Top Mountain, 1-Senada, 5-Awesome Maria